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COVID-19 Death Might Reach 218 Million Worldwide?

Back in February 25, we published this article based on a prediction by an expert posted on Yahoo! News.  Despite the still rising cases of COVID-19 worldwide and the death toll climbing to more than a million, I can safely say that this prediction might already be false.  Do you agree?


Screenshot from 10/3/2020

What's Happening Way Back February 2020?

The recent news from Yahoo! News which states that COVID019 or the Novel Corona Virus might infect up to 70 percent of humanity brings a gruesome picture.

Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting that COVID-18, the coronavirus we once knew "will ultimately not be containable" and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity,

COVID-19 is Deadlier than the Spanish Flu

The current world population is at 7.8 billion people.  If we take the mathematics out of the Yahoo! News, it means the virus can infect about 3.12 Billion up to 5.46 Billion People.

Now, COVID-19, as it is called, has a mortality rate of about 3.37% as of the writing of this article. Based on the graph which shows the rising mortality rate let us say that by that time the percentage only manages to climb to a modest 4%.

3.12 Billion and 5.46 Billion people multiplied by 4% brings us to a gruesome death count of 124.8 Million to 218.4 Million people.  This is 436.8 times the death count of the 1918 influenza pandemic known as the Spanish flu which involves the H1N1 influenza virus.

Reason for the Prediction on COVID-19 Deaths and Infection

According to the same Yahoo! News article, the main reason for this is the nature of COVID-19.

"because the current coronavirus, known as COVID-19, can be asymptomatic, or at least very mild, there's a better chance people will likely go about their day as normal. The down side, though, is that it becomes harder to trace and prevent. In that sense it's similar to the flu, which can also be deadly, but often passes without the infected person seeking medical care."

Personally, I do not want this to be true but it can be.  What do you think?

Source:  All statistics and images are from

Update on COVID-19 Global Spread 

May 3, 2020. It has been more than a month since we last updated this article about COVID-19 and I personally fear the worst for this virus.  As of this update there are 3.4Million people infected by the virus (+2.58 Million), 244,104 deaths (+203,369), and 1,114,202 recoveries (+939,751).

It is good to note that people are recovering but it is also sad to see the facts that the increase in the number of infections and deaths is faster than the recoveries. The death rate also climbed to 7.03% from just 4.13%.  This  is a 170% increase in terms of the death rate of COVID-19.

Could we survive?  I believe we could and due to the prediction of the pandemic raging for more than 18-24 months, the prediction in this article of .12 Billion up to 5.46 Billion People infected people and 124.8 Million to 218.4 Million people might be a gruesome reality. 

Let us continue and be safe.  I am hoping that by the next update we have better things to say.

Previous Update on COVID-19 Global Spread

 March 31, 2020.  For the past 3 months we can safely say that COVID-19 has the tendency to increase its infection and death rate by 10x.  End of January infections was at around 8,000 then by the end of February is wat at 80,000 and now it passes 800,000 with more than 40,000 deaths.  We are threading on dangerous times ahead and let us hope that we can stop this virus asap.

March 21, 2020Things are still not looking good as the mortality rate of the virus now climbs to above 4% from the previous 3%.  This is one of the bases for this article but I am still hoping all of this will be false.

Lockdown is now worldwide as cases soar closely to 300,000 with more cases now outside of China. COVID-19 deaths are now above 11,000 with 186 of 195 countries affected. The World Health Organization (WHO) had already declared it as a pandemic.

March 7, 2020.  It has been 10 days after the writing of this article and it is March 7, 2020.  As of today there are a total of 100,716 infected, 3,387 deaths, 55,596 recovered and 94 countries affected.  The novel coronavirus is now worldwide.  Imagine within that 10 days 50+ countries are added to the reach of this virus.

There are now close to 20,000 cases outside of China while the cases inside China is in fact going down.  The death toll outside of China is now close to 400.  Currently, the countries having an outbreak are South Korea, Iran, and Italy.  There are also dangers of widespread infection and outbreak in Germany, the United States, France, Germany, UK, and Indonesia.

The World Health Organization (WHO) had not yet declared it as a pandemic but if this is not contained at this phase it can be something very very dangerous.

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