Polling shows McCain and Romney very close in today’s Michigan primary and Rasmussen Markets data shows the race to be a toss-up. When results from Michigan come in, data from the Rasmussen Markets will provide the first measure of how the race has changed.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next update is scheduled for Wednesday at 11:00 a.m.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Clinton 37%, Obama 30% and John Edwards 15% (see recent daily numbers). Clinton has a solid lead among white voters while Obama leads 4-to-1 among African-Americans. A new survey shows that Americans think Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are receiving more preferential treatment than any other candidates.
Looking down the road a bit, Clinton is gaining ground in South Carolina and holds a solid lead in Florida.
On the Republican side, McCain leads in South Carolina and Fred Thompson is gaining ground. New polling data from Florida shows four Republican candidates essentially tied for the lead. Ironically, McCain may be the biggest winner from Giuliani’s strategy to stay out of the early states.
Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a 58.0% chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a 40.0% chance. On the Republican side, McCain is now given a 32.0% chance of winning the nomination. He is followed by Giuliani at 21.6%, Mike Huckabee at 13.5%, Mitt Romney at 18.9%, and Fred Thompson at 3.5%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll.
Prospects for other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Robert Novak say that John McCain is not talking straight on taxes. Dick Morris says McCain’s cross-party appeal makes him the man to beat, and Michael Barone analyzes the political landscape after Iowa and New Hampshire. For other insights and analysis, see the Rasmussen Reports Political Commentary page.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends. Rasmussen Reports also provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Source: Rasmussen Reports